Baltic Sea Brief: How much uncertainty can the Baltic Sea withstand?

ICES opens the door to higher catches - the Commission hits the brakes

On 24 August, the European Commission presented its proposal for fishing quotas in the Baltic Sea for 2027. The proposal is based on scientific advice from ICES and the EU’s multiannual management plan, but is not a direct translation of ICES’s advice into actual quotas. ICES provides the scientific basis, whilst the Commission formulates the proposal, which the Member States will then negotiate.

Compared with 2026, the Commission is proposing increases for certain stocks. The quota for herring in the central Baltic Sea is proposed to increase by 49 per cent, to 143,860 tonnes, and the quota for sprat by 44 per cent, to 291,590 tonnes. For herring in the Gulf of Bothnia, an increase of 3 per cent to 57,308 tonnes is proposed, and in the Gulf of Riga an increase of 11 per cent (see table).

However, a comparison with last year’s quotas only gives part of the picture. For herring in the central Baltic Sea, ICES specified a catch range of 211,363 to 324,914 tonnes for 2027. The Commission’s proposal of 143,860 tonnes is therefore significantly below the lower limit of that range. For herring in the Gulf of Bothnia, too, the Commission’s proposal of 57,308 tonnes falls below the ICES range of 80,767 to 90,391 tonnes. For sprat, the picture is different: the Commission’s proposal of 291,590 tonnes falls within the ICES range of 253,819 to 332,885 tonnes.

There are no positive signs for cod. Stocks remain very weak, and the Commission wishes to restrict fishing to unavoidable by-catches in 2027 as well.

Table: Fishing quotas 2026 compared with ICES advice and the European Commission’s proposed fishing quotas for 2027.

This autumn’s dilemma: higher catches or long-term recovery?

When scientific advice is to be translated into specific quota proposals, caution must be exercised and the overall state of the Baltic Sea must be taken into account. The Commission describes the Baltic Sea’s ecosystem as being in a very poor state. Eutrophication, climate change, pollution and the loss of biodiversity continue to affect the sea and its fish stocks. The Commission also highlights historical – and likely ongoing – hidden overfishing as a problem. Positive signs in stock assessments can be used as arguments for higher catches.

However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty; several stocks are still at low levels and the Baltic Sea ecosystem continues to be under severe pressure. The crucial question is therefore not only how much fish the models suggest can be caught in a single year, but also what safety margins are required to allow the stocks to recover in the long term.

The Commission’s proposal is not a decision. This autumn, Member States will negotiate the levels before the EU’s fisheries ministers agree on fishing opportunities for 2027. The negotiations will determine how large a safety margin the Member States are prepared to allow for the recovery of the stocks.

Broad political consensus that ICES advice needs to be improved

The ICES advice issued in May paved the way for significantly higher catches of, amongst others, herring and sprat. BalticWaters has previously highlighted uncertainties regarding, amongst other things, recruitment, catch data and stock assessments, and emphasised that the possibility of increased quotas should not be equated with a recovery of the stocks.

The discussion on how ICES advice should be interpreted and developed is not only driven by researchers and environmental organisations. There is also an unusually broad political consensus in Sweden.

Ahead of the election, BalticWaters and Sportfiskarna asked all eight parliamentary parties for their views on the management of fish stocks in the Baltic Sea.

All eight parties answer ‘no’ to the question of whether ICES’s scientific advice is sufficient to achieve viable fish populations in the Baltic Sea. All of them also state that they wish to work towards ensuring that the advice takes better account of fish stocks and the poor state of the Baltic Sea.

The parties’ specific proposals differ, but several themes recur: greater consideration for the ecosystem, the size and age structure of fish stocks, the precautionary principle and the uncertainty in stock assessments. There is therefore an unusually broad political basis for Sweden to press for improved scientific advice and a more long-term management of fish stocks in the Baltic Sea.

A clear Swedish mandate is now needed

This autumn’s quota negotiations are taking place at an unusual time. Sweden is heading for a general election before the EU fisheries ministers meet in October. Regardless of whether Sweden is represented at that time by a newly formed government or a caretaker government, the minister responsible will need a clear mandate from the Riksdag’s EU Committee.

Sweden should continue to pursue a cautious and long-term approach, in which the recovery of fish stocks takes precedence over maximising quotas in any given year.

At the same time, Sweden should press for improvements to ICES’s scientific advice, both in terms of how the advice is formulated, the factors taken into account, and how the advice takes into consideration the Baltic Sea’s ecosystem, the structure of the stocks and the significant uncertainty in several assessments. There is broad political support for this amongst the parties in the Riksdag.

Sweden also needs to seek alliances with other Baltic Sea countries, not least Finland. Sweden and Finland share the same sea and fish stocks, but have repeatedly taken different positions in quota negotiations. A closer Swedish-Finnish dialogue on the need for long-term recovery could change the dynamics of the EU negotiations.

The aim must be broader than individual annual quotas: to rebuild viable fish stocks that, in the long term, can support sustainable and profitable fishing, with a larger proportion of the catch being used as food for people.

Four priorities for Sweden’s next government:

• Adopt a cautious approach in this autumn’s negotiations on fishing quotas
• Work towards improved ICES advice that takes better account of the ecosystem, the structure of fish stocks and scientific uncertainty
• Seek closer cooperation with Finland and other Baltic Sea countries to ensure more long-term management
• Prioritise the recovery of fish stocks, with the aim of achieving a long-term, sustainable fishing industry and a higher proportion of catches for human consumption

The brief in short

The European Commission is proposing higher quotas for species including herring and sprat compared with 2026. At the same time, the proposals for several stocks are well below the catch levels permitted by the ICES Scientific Council.

This discrepancy highlights a key issue ahead of this autumn’s negotiations: should improved stock assessments be used to rapidly increase fishing, or are larger safety margins needed to ensure the long-term recovery of the Baltic Sea’s fish stocks?

At the same time, there is unusually broad political consensus in Sweden that ICES’s advice needs to be improved. All eight parties in the Riksdag believe that the current advice is insufficient to achieve viable fish populations and want it to take greater account of fish stocks and the poor state of the Baltic Sea.

In October, EU fisheries ministers will negotiate fishing opportunities for 2027. Sweden will then need a clear mandate to pursue a cautious and long-term approach, with the recovery of the Baltic Sea’s fish stocks at its heart.