Summer brief: There is a future for Baltic sea fish

Today, there are signs of some recovery for herring and sprat. The latest scientific advice from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) points to positive developments in parts of the stocks, although uncertainties remain high and the underlying data are limited. This reminds us that changes in the sea are rarely straightforward. Fish are affected by many factors at once - from fishing pressure and climate to shifts in ecosystems and food webs - which often interact and reinforce one another.

To understand what is at stake, it is not enough to count how much fish remains - we also need to look at what kind of fish remains. Cod today are often small, lean, and slow-growing. The size structure of the stocks has shifted, with fewer large individuals and more small ones. A similar pattern can be seen in herring stocks.

At the same time, we see that cod possess biological resilience. Historically, large females have been crucial for reproduction, but new research shows that the stock may also display an unexpected capacity to adapt. Today, smaller - and likely younger - females appear to contribute more to the eggs that can survive the Baltic’s changing conditions. This does not mean the crisis is over - but it shows that the potential for recovery still exists.

This development raises a broader question: how well, and how quickly, can Baltic fish adapt to a changing environment? Research suggests there is some flexibility, but also clear limits. If changes occur too rapidly, the fish’s natural resilience may not be enough.

Encouragingly, adaptation can sometimes happen quickly. Baltic herring, for example, has developed significant variation between different populations over a relatively short period. This includes differences in when and where they spawn, how they are adapted to different water conditions, and their feeding behavior. At the same time, it is important to remember that many of these adaptations have developed over long timescales, while today’s changes are happening rapidly. This makes management crucial. If fish are to cope with these changes, policy must provide them with time and space.

When policy sets the course

Management and political action matter. Measures that reduce fishing pressure and change how and where we fish can support recovery, even if the path is rarely straightforward. That is why caution and long-term thinking are essential. When Sweden chose, in the most recent vote on Baltic fishing quotas, to oppose the Council of Ministers’ decision, it sent an important signal: recovery and long-term sustainability must take precedence over short-term maximum catches.

It is also here that scientific advice needs to be properly understood. Each year, ICES provides recommendations on how much fish can be caught. These are based on advanced models and available data, but they are not, in themselves, a management strategy. They primarily address how much we can fish without jeopardizing stock reproduction in the coming years. They say less about how to rebuild stronger stocks and functioning ecosystems over time.

This is why policy must take responsibility - by accounting for uncertainty, ecosystem needs, and the value of allowing stocks to rebuild. But the future of fish is not only about ecology; it is also about economics.

More value – less outtake

Economic outcomes are not determined only by how much fish is caught, but by the value created from the catch. Today, a large share of catches is used for feed production, which generates low economic value per kilogram of fish. The same resource could create significantly greater value if processed for human consumption. This would create jobs, provide more food for our plates, and strengthen Sweden’s food supply and resilience.

When fisheries become concentrated among a few actors and value chains move away from coastal communities, the link between the resource and local benefits is also lost. Fish that are landed, processed, and consumed closer to where they are caught become relevant to more people - and make the benefits more visible for individuals, communities, and the sea.

A future worth choosing

Baltic fish stocks are in a serious situation, but the picture is not entirely bleak. Signs of recovery, new knowledge about the adaptive capacity of fish, and growing political awareness show that the trajectory can be influenced.

The question is therefore not only how much fish we can catch next year, but what kind of sea we want to leave behind. If management is guided by caution, ecosystem needs, and a higher value placed on the fish that are actually caught, recovery can become more than a hope. It can become a direction.

There is a future for Baltic Sea fish!