At the end of May, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) published its annual scientific advice for fisheries in the Baltic Sea. The advice paves the way for increased quotas for several stocks. At the same time, it shows that the recovery remains fragile, that there are significant uncertainties, and that key species such as cod and salmon have not yet recovered. Increased quotas risk being interpreted as a sign of recovery – but ICES’s advice shows that this is not the case.
Despite some positive signs for individual stocks, recovery in the Baltic Sea is far from assured. To strengthen fish stocks, reduced fishing pressure is generally required. The fact that quota increases are nevertheless being proposed is not because higher fishing pressure contributes to recovery, but because ICES models allow for greater catches when certain indicators temporarily improve. The precautionary principle should therefore guide the EU when it decides on new fishing quotas later this year.
Significant increases in herring and sprat quotas despite stocks remaining low
Several of the quotas are proposed to be increased from historically low levels. At the same time, there is considerable uncertainty and several stocks remain weak.
Although ICES classifies the data set for herring in the central Baltic Sea as comprehensive, key parts of the analysis are based on uncertain assumptions. Recruitment in the forecasts is based on model-based logic that does not necessarily reflect an actual recovery. A significant proportion of the catches lack verified data, whilst the stock consists of several mixed and genetically distinct populations. S All in all, this means that the uncertainty in the advice is greater than the aggregate quota figures suggest.
For herring in the Gulf of Bothnia, the ICES assessment is based on a relatively strong data set and shows some positive signs. At the same time, the stock remains below levels considered safe, and the forecasts are largely based on assumptions regarding recruitment; current fishing pressure is not considered low enough to ensure recovery.
ICES’s assessment of sprat is based on extensive data, but contains significant uncertainties. This applies in particular to the lack of reporting of Russian catches, which account for a large proportion of the fishery, as well as problems with misreporting between herring and sprat. This means that the uncertainty in the advice is greater than the quota figures suggest.
A common feature of these recommendations is that several stocks remain below levels considered safe, whilst in several cases quotas are proposed to increase. This means that the proposed quota increases do not reflect a stable recovery of the stocks and therefore do not support a broader recovery of the Baltic Sea ecosystem.
Cod and salmon show that the problems go beyond individual species
Despite several years of severe restrictions and fishing bans, neither cod nor salmon have recovered. This shows that the problems in the Baltic Sea cannot be solved through measures targeting individual species, but require a holistic approach to the ecosystem. Herring and sprat are key prey species and an important food source for both cod and salmon. Continued high fishing pressure on herring and sprat therefore risks directly undermining the recovery of the Baltic Sea’s predatory fish.
The Baltic Sea still lacks a long-term strategy
Although the Common Fisheries Policy is based on the precautionary principle, in practice this has had limited impact on quota decisions. Where scientific knowledge is uncertain or stocks are under pressure, quotas should be set in such a way as to minimise the risk of further decline. This is particularly important in light of this year’s ICES advice, which points to continued significant uncertainties in several stocks. This requires a clearer political direction in the EU’s quota decisions
Against this background, Sweden should take the initiative to establish broader cooperation with other Baltic Sea countries, such as Finland and Germany, to promote more long-term and cautious management. In the latest quota negotiations, Sweden was the only country to oppose increased quotas. To have a greater impact in the future, Sweden needs to build alliances with other countries and push for a management approach that prioritises the recovery of fish stocks over short-term increases in fishing pressure.
Policy recommendations
- In this autumn’s EU quota negotiations, Sweden should advocate for the consistent application of the precautionary principle and oppose quota increases in stocks where recovery is uncertain or where the data is subject to significant uncertainties.
- Sweden should advocate within the EU for fisheries management that is more focused on building robust fish stocks above safe levels, rather than maximising short-term catches.
- Sweden should take the initiative to deepen cooperation with other Baltic Sea countries to build alliances around more long-term and cautious management.
What is needed to reverse the trend?
In a situation where several fish stocks have still not recovered and where there is considerable uncertainty in the data, increased quotas risk delaying the recovery of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. To reverse this trend, what is fundamentally required is a reduction in fishing pressure, consistent application of the precautionary principle, and management that prioritises strong stocks over short-term catches. This places high demands on how ICES advice is interpreted and put into practice. Here, Sweden can play a decisive role in pushing for a more cautious and long-term approach in EU decision-making.
Fact box: ICES advice on fishing quotas for 2027
| Stock | Quota decision for 2026 | ICES quota advice for 2027 | Change compared with 2026 |
| Herring, central Baltic Sea (SDs 25–29, 32) | 96,463 tonnes | 211,363 – 324,914 tonnes | 119 % to 237 % |
| Herring, Gulf of Bothnia (SDs 30, 31) | 39,108 tonnes | 80,767 – 90,391 tonnes | 107 % to 131 % |
| Western herring stock (SDs 22-24) | 788 (by-catch only) | 0 | |
| Sprat (SDs 22-32) | 201 975 tonnes | 253 819 – 332 885 tonnes | 26 % to 65 % |
| Salmon (SDs 22-31) | 25,537 laxar | Same advice as for 2026 | May only be fished in SDs 29N–31 between 1 May and 31 August |
| Salmon (SD 32) | 10,232 laxar | Same advice as for 2026 | |
| Cod (SD 22-24) | 266 tonnes (by-catch only) | 0 | |
| Cod (SD 24-32) | 430 tonnes (by-catch only) | 0 |
Source: ICES Advice for 2027
About ICES advice: ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) is the international scientific body responsible for assessments and fisheries advice in the Baltic Sea. This advice will form the basis for the EU’s forthcoming decisions on fishing quotas later this year.
The brief in short
The latest advice from ICES paves the way for increased quotas for several fish stocks in the Baltic Sea. At the same time, significant uncertainties remain and several stocks are still below levels considered safe. Increased quotas do not necessarily mean that stocks are on the road to recovery – on the contrary, they may slow down the recovery process. To ensure the stable, long-term development of fish stocks, cautious fishing, consistent application of the precautionary principle and more long-term management are required. Sweden has an important role to play in promoting this approach within the EU.
