On Tuesday, August 26, the European Commission presented its proposal for next year’s fishing quotas in the Baltic Sea. BalticWaters welcomes the proposal, which comprises no quota increases and in some cases even quota reductions, creating more space for the Baltic Sea fish stocks to recover. It now remains to be seen whether the Council of Ministers will choose to listen to the Commission’s proposal when the final quotas are decided on October 27–28.
Fish stocks in the Baltic Sea have seen brighter days. For several decades, many fish species and populations have shown clear signs of declining growth and health. Three out of four herring and sprat stocks in the Baltic Sea are below the threshold for when management measures need to be taken to restore stocks to sustainable levels (Btrigger), one of which is also below the critical threshold that marks a high risk of stock collapse (Blim). Cod stocks still show no signs of recovery.
After several years below the critical threshold that marks a high risk of stock collapse, herring and sprat stocks in the central Baltic Sea have now increased to just above this level. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the scientific data from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). Uncertainties in the basic data exist, and misreporting of herring and sprat occur to an unknown extent. There is also a lack of sufficient and reliable information on Russian fishing.
For several decades, herring and sprat stocks in the central Baltic Sea have been hovering around the critical threshold that marks a high risk of stock collapse (Btrigger). The stock has now increased slightly and is therefore just above this threshold. However, the stock is still below the threshold for when management measures needs to be taken to rebuild the stock to sustainable levels (Btrigger).
When the Council of Ministers sets the final fishing quotas, the starting point is usually the ICES headline advice for each fish stock, the Commission’s proposal, and the Member States’ own national interests. This year’s advice from ICES for herring and sprat in the central Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia is not compatible with the so-called 5% rule*, Article 4.6 of the Baltic Sea Multi-annual Management Plan. According to this rule, there should be less than a 5% probability of a stock collapse. The Commission is therefore proposing fishing quotas that are just over 50% lower than the ICES advice** – 25,560 tons in the Gulf of Bothnia and 83,881 tons in the Central Baltic Sea.
The Commission has taken into account the uncertainties in the ICES advice and is erring on the side of caution. This also applies to the proposal for the sprat quota. ICES advice for sprat fishing shows that a 36 percent increase is possible, but that the data is more uncertain than usual. In addition, over the last three years, the influx of young fish to the stock has been at record low levels. Therefore, the Commission proposes that next year’s sprat quota remain unchanged. This is a good thing, because without reliable data, it is difficult to make wise decisions. It is remarkable that the ICES advice allows for a quota increase of a stock that is performing so poorly and where the data is so uncertain.
Another reason to be restrictive in the quota decision is the external factors affecting the Baltic Sea. During the summer, there have been record-breaking algal blooms, which may be due to warmer water. The Baltic Sea, which is a relatively shallow sea, is more severely affected by climate change than other deeper seas, which has significant consequences for ecosystems.
The final fishing quotas will be decided by the Council of Ministers on October 27–28. The decision will be preceded by negotiations between the member states in BALTFISH, which Sweden will chair from July 2025 to July 2026.
BalticWaters urges the Swedish government to:
• Convince other member states to set fishing quotas for herring and sprat in line with the European Commission’s proposal.
• Ensure that the five percent rule* is respected and under no circumstances exceeded.
• In consultation with Finland, severely restrict, or preferably stop, fishing around Finngrunden in the Bothnian Sea, where herring overwinter and fishing pressure is high.
• Highlight the critical status of cod and the need to reduce bycatches of cod in the flatfish fisheries.
• Work to ensure that the Commission tasks ICES with developing a recovery plan for cod with concrete measures.
Read BalticWater’s previous calls to the government.
| Herring |
|---|
| Stock: Central Baltic Sea Quota for 2025: 83,881 tons (excluding Russian share) ICES advice for 2026: 120,378–157,996 tons Commission quota proposal: 83,881 tons BalticWater’s comment on the Commission’s proposal: Good quota proposal that takes into account scientific uncertainties, the poor status of the stock, and the five percent rule*. Stock: Gulf of Bothnia Quota for 2025: 66,446 tons ICES advice for 2026: 55,869–62,684 tons Commission quota proposal: 25,560 tons BalticWater’s comment on the Commission’s proposal: Good quota proposal, for the same reasons as for herring in the Central Baltic Sea. |
| Sprat |
|---|
| Quota for 2025: 139,500 tons ICES advice for 2026: 176,056–230,518 tons (excluding Russian share) Commission quota proposal: 139,500 BalticWater’s comment on the Commission’s proposal: Good quota proposal that takes into account scientific uncertainties and the poor status of the stock. Read ICES advice for sprat. |
| Cod |
|---|
| Stock: Eastern Quota for 2025: 430 tons (bycatch only, excluding Russian share) ICES advice for 2026: 0 Commission quota proposal: 159 tons Stock: Western Quota for 2025: 266 tons (bycatch only) ICES advice for 2026: 0 Commission quota proposal: 42 tons BalticWater’s comment on the Commission’s proposal: Unfortunate but reasonable quota proposals. Removing the bycatch quota would stop other fisheries, such as plaice fishing. |
| Lax |
|---|
| Stock: Baltic Sea, excluding the Gulf of Finland Quota for 2025: 34,787 ICES advice for 2026: 30,000 Commission quota proposal: 25,487 BalticWater’s comment on the Commission’s proposal: Quota proposal is too high. It does not take sufficient account of the poor status of salmon. Fishing should be directed towards compensatory salmon. Read more at the Baltic Salmon Fund (in Swedish). |
How can ICES’s headline advice be inconsistent with the law?
Scientific advice on fishing quotas is a task assigned to ICES by the European Commission and regulated by an agreement. According to the agreement, ICES’s headline advice need to be based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY), a theoretical concept of how catches can be maximized in the long term without jeopardizing the reproduction of stocks. The headline advice does not include all legal requirements, which means that in some cases it may contravene the law. In practice, fishing according to MSY has proven to involve considerable risks and has in several cases led to overfishing.
The Brief in Short
The European Commission’s proposal for next year’s fishing quotas in the Baltic Sea is good news for herring and sprat. The proposal comprises reductions in fishing quotas compared to ICES headline advice. It now remains to be seen whether the Council of Ministers will choose to listen to the Commission when the final quota decisions are made on October 27–28.
*Five percent rule: The so-called five percent rule, Article 4.6 of the Baltic Sea Multiannual Management Plan, is a type of safety barrier that means fishing must be reduced if there is a greater than 5 percent probability that a stock will reach critically low levels.
**Calculated based on the highest figure in ICES’s headline advice for herring in the Central Baltic Sea and Gulf of Bothnia compared to the European Commission’s proposal. The figure is an average of the results for both stocks.
